Las predicciones a los premios al Jugador Más Valioso y al Cy Young

Image credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Translated by José M. Hernández Lagunes

I suppose that voting has always been a controversial topic at a certain level in the United States. Y se siente—un poco—appropiado que, la semana después de una agotadora ya menudo fea elección de mitad de periodo, finally obtendremos los resultados de una temporada de premios de la MLB particularly heated.

Maybe nature is polarized every day, but the discussions around this year’s awards—especially the MVP of the American League—seemed unnecessary and especially loaded with out-of-place passion and misleading arguments. Maybe the inflation rates of the economy of hot opinions have skyrocketed so much that the columnists feel that they need to shout more stupid opinions to be listened to. Perhaps the competitions for the sports prizes are simply un escenario menos destructivo en el que enojarse en línea; por lo menos nadie is questioning the integrity of the voting of the BBWAA, even if they can disputar el resultado.

The beauty of the award prediction model is that the results that are shown below are based on math. No puedes gritarle al modelo por sus opiniones, porque no tiene ninguna. The results are simply a projection of the expected voting for this year’s Cy Young and MVP races, based on a whole series of quantifiable factors.

The model comes from a difficult year, in which it only passed 4-2. Still, he batted .679 historically (19 of 28) and never hit less than two of the four races in a given year. But neither did the four winners from 2018, which has provoked some small adjustments in the weighting. I am telling you all this to be the most transparent possible. As you will see below, this year is no longer perfect for predicting the three finalists of each race. En cuanto a los ganadores, al menos se anunciarán a tiempo. O eso creemos.

American League Cy Young

As we know, the model did not succeed with the three finalists of the Cy Young de la Liga Americana, ya que Alec Manoah pasó el corte por encima de Shohei Ohtani. Si bien esto es un poco surpandente, también refuerza lo que el modelo ha predicho de otra manera—que esto proyecta ser una carrera para Justin Verlander. If you are, de hecho, a unanimous vote, that opens all the possibilities in the five prime positions.

Sin embargo, no hay necesidad de pensar demasiado en esto. Verlander led the league in wins, ERA and WHIP, and he did it all while coming back from an injury season. Tiene todos los components de una temporada premiada. Y aunque estos premios se votan antes de la posttemporada, Verlander also managed to finish his long-awaited victory in the World Series in the fifth game, visiting Philadelphia, taking the Phillies to the bord of the abyss en camino to his second title. Ahora, tiene almost assured the third Cy Young of his career as a pastel cherry.

Liga Americana MVP

The debate about the most contested MVP of the last time can end up being quite anticlimactic in the end. Aaron Judge he came to cinco thousandths of a point in batting average of a Triple Crown to match his American League record of 62 quadrangulars. Lideró la Liga en carreras, carreras impulsadas, extra-base hits y both measures de WAR. Even so, it can be argued that what Shohei Ohtani achieved was more impressive. Pero el modelo no espera que muchos—si es que alguno—votantes lo vean así.

There were good reasons to think that the model was inferior to Ohtani last year, despite predicting his victory. Sin embargo, incluso si está infravalorado este año, la diferencia es demasiado grande para que la supere.

That the finalist Yordan Álvarez came third in the real voting would not be a surprise, since the model placed him a fraction of a point from the top three. If, somehow, he ends up on top of Ohtani, it will be a signal that the model has failed more.

Cy Young Liga Nacional

This is the most open career of all of this year on paper, due to the almost comical dispersion of statistical leaders. A different pitcher from the National led the league in each of the following categories: wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, K/9, FIP, bWAR and fWAR. The model finds the point of inflection in the volume, giving Sandy Alcántara and his 228 and ⅔ entries launched, leading the League, and getting the baton.

It is notable that, in previous years, no parece haber mucho (if es que hay alguno) impacto de lanzar para un equipo ganador en este premio. Hay muchos aces en los tendendientes en la lista, pero ninguno de ellos se ha distinguido en la tabla. In fact, this list looks much more like what the American League could be if Verlander quits the field. But the consistency of Alcántara in the mix across the diverse classification tables gives it an advantage.

Liga Nacional MVP

There are two factors very difficult to measure that can influence this race in a way that the model cannot see: the bias towards recent memories and the division of votes. Even so, the difference between the first and the rest of the field means that the model feels quite good that the terrible September and October Paul Goldschmidt no le hayan costado su primer galardón como MVP.

Although Goldschmidt tenga que compete por los votos con Nolan Arenadolo mismo ocurre con todos los Dodgers, desde Freddie Freeman Hasta Mookie Betts y Trea Turner. The same thing happens with the Braves who are on the list of candidates, sobre todo Dansby Swanson y Austin Riley. Todo ello puede conspirar para que tanto Manny Machado como JT Realmuto (8º—88.76) receive an unexpected impulse, aquí como estrellas más destacadas de los equipos de posttemporada.

Last year, the achievements of Sal Pérez as a receiver did not receive much more credibility than if he had played in another position (or like those of Buster Posey, in years past). ¿Los de Realmuto? ¿El hecho de que su equipo haya llegado a la posttemporada le da un impulso major que el ya incorporated en el modelo?

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