NFL odds Week 11: Best bets for Jets-Patriots, Oregon-Utah and more

Buckle up for another quarterback-related play.

Our best bets (27-20-1) are in the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

No. 10 Utah at No. 12 Oregon (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Don’t expect Bo Nix to play this Saturday.

Rumors about Nix’s knee surfaced Wednesday and the betting line reacted accordingly. Oregon flipped from a 3-point favorite to a 2-point underdog in a couple of hours, which tells you that the betting market believes the noise.

The line will run even longer if and when Nix gets ruled out.

On top of all that, Utah’s power style has been a problem for Oregon over the last few years and I don’t expect that to change. Utes running back Tavion Thomas galloped for a career-high 180 yards last week and his number will be called quite a bit in this one.

Lay anything under a field goal.

PICK: Utah (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Should you bet on undefeated TCU to overpower Baylor?

Should you bet on undefeated TCU to overpower Baylor?

Betting analyst Sam Panayotovich breaks down the match between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Baylor Bears.

Illinois at No. 3 Michigan (noon ET Saturday, ABC)

The Fighting Illini are starting to show their cracks.

After national pundits started salivating over Illinois’ stingy defense, Bret Bielema’s bunch gave up 23 points to Michigan State and 31 to Purdue in back-to-back losses at home. This team was never a serious contender to make big waves and now, the Illini face their toughest opponent to date.

The Wolverines are a freight train right now, and they’re running over everybody in their way. Effort is often half the battle in these late-season games and with Michigan still trying to prove that it belongs in the College Football Playoff no matter what happens against Ohio Statea blowout is very possible.

I like Big Blue by three touchdowns.

PICK: Michigan (-17.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 17.5 points

Jets at Patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Yes, I’m betting Zach Wilson against Bill Belichick.

My Boston people aren’t too happy about this, but it is what it is. I think the Jets are a better football team. And let’s not act like Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is anything special, either. This line also stinks. New England was a 3-point favorite at New York, and now they’re only -3 at home?!

If Wilson can avoid the big turnover, the Jets can easily win against these overrated Patriots. He carved New England up for 355 passing yards in the last meeting, but three interceptions were his downfall. If he protects the rock, the Jets will be in business. I mean, come on, the three-win Bears went into Foxborough and won last month.

This feels like a 20-17 game either way.

PICK: Jets (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Cardinals vs. 49ers at Mexico City (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

This is a number grab for me, plain and simple.

Most Las Vegas sportsbooks opened the game at Niners -6, and it’s been blasted through the “7,” which is the most key number in football. I’ve been monitoring the Kyler Murray and Nuk Hopkins injury situation pretty close and think both guys will give it a go Monday night in Mexico.

Also, San Francisco has not made bettors money as favorites over the last three years. The Niners are 12-17 against the spread when laying points, but the betting public just can’t get enough because of all their flashy playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

Inflation works in our favor on this one.

PICK: Cardinals (+8.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points (or win outright)

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